Stop the “GINIWASEKAO” Mentality; AUC Chairperson is Too Close to Call

Recently, I have seen Raila’s online lieutenants already celebrating as just as they did in 2022 at KICC.

In as much as Raila Odinga who previously was the AU High Representative for Infrastructure Development has a rich deep rooted Pan Africanist record with the support of key continental figures such as Former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo and endorsements of over 23 countries including majority EAC member states AUC elections are not about magnificent resumes and track record if it were so then Amb. Amina Mohamed whose resume was better than Mousa Mahamat (The current outgoing Chair) could have won the last elections.

She lost despite the Kenya government spending approximately 400Million on her campaign.

Reason? First, some of our “good neighbors” within the East Africa region never voted for Kenya (Amb Amina Mohamed)

Secondly, Kenyan diplomats at Adis Ababa at the time mishandled the “Morrocco Question”, While lobbying the pro-Morocco camp, Kenya signaled support for Morocco’s readmission back to AU.

However, Kenyan officials took a neutral stance when engaging with the pro-Polisario camp. This lack of clarity led Morocco to back H.E Moussa Faki Mahamat of Chad.

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Morocco’s significant diplomatic investment in regaining AU membership further consolidated its position against Amina.

However, the most significant factor was “Francophone Solidarity”. The African continent is ‘loudly’ divided into two Francophone and Anglophone.

Going back to the history of AUC Chairpersons, their countries, and their language group (Anglophone or Francophone) you discover that out of 5 AUC chairpersons 4 were from Francophone while one was Anglophone detailed as;

  1. Amara Essy (2002–2003, Interim Chairperson) Côte d’Ivoire – Francophone
  2. AlphaOumarKonaré(2003–2008)Mali,Francophone
  3. JeanPing(2008–2012)GabonFrancophone
  4. Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma (2012–2017) South Africa Anglophone
  5. Moussa Faki Mahamat (2017–present: Chad, Francophone

In the 2017 AUC Chair election, The Francophone bloc, comprising 29 French-speaking African countries(Algeria, Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Congo-Brazzaville (Republic of the Congo), Congo-Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo), Côte d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast), Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea (French is one of the official languages, alongside Spanish and Portuguese), Gabon, Guinea (Conakry), Guinea-Bissau (French is used alongside Portuguese as a working language in regional settings), Madagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Mauritius (French is widely spoken, though English is the official language), Morocco,

Niger, Rwanda (French is an official language alongside Kinyarwanda, English, and Kiswahili) Senegal Seychelles), Togo Tunisia, Burundi, CAR (Central African Republic) threw its weight behind Mahamat.

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Coming to Raila Odinga’s Case, in February he is facing a candidate nominated by an Islamic-led and dominated Djibouti which belongs to the Francophone bloc. Just like Rt Hon Raila Odinga Hon. Mahmoud Ali Youssouf equally has a ‘name’ but his is predominantly in the diplomatic boardrooms since he has served as Djibouti’s Minister of Foreign Affairs since 2005. Twenty solid Years.

One International political analyst arguably said “If Raila Odinga has name recognition across the continent, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf has the contact book.’ That, at least, is the argument at the heart of Djibouti’s bid for the African Union Commission (AUC) chair.

Mahmoud, whose AUC campaign is advised by The Tony Blair Institute, is a skilled diplomat with a steady image of diplomacy spearheading strategic partnerships for Djibouti, hosting military bases for global rivals (United States & China) and France.

Remember to be elected as the Chairperson of AUC a candidate must secure two-thirds (37) majority votes of the Assembly of AU which is expected to be 55 states.

However, currently, the African Union (AU) has suspended six (Burkina Faso, Gabon, Guinea 4. Mali, Niger, Sudan) member countries due to unconstitutional changes in government, primarily military coups.

This means they will not participate in the elections of the chairperson. Distributing the remaining 49 member states according to Francophone and Islamic block for Mahmoud Ali Youssouf and Anglophone for Raila Odinga you discover that the win for Raila will require special intervention.

For Francophone and predominantly Islamic members you can count 8 that is Algeria, Chad, Comoros, Djibouti, Mauritania, Morocco, Senegal and Tunisia).

For Francophone (with Islamic minority) you can count 13 that is Benin, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Congo (Republic of the Congo), Congo (Democratic Republic of the Congo), Equatorial Guinea, Ivory Coast (Côte d’Ivoire), Madagascar, Rwanda, Seychelles, Togo, Western Sahara)

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Finally, for Islamic Member states, some of which share membership with Djibouti in the Arab League and Organization of Islamic Cooperation you can count 5 that is Egypt, Libya, The Gambia, Eritrea, Somalia.

On the other hand the Anglophone and Lusophone member states that are predominantly Christian forming Raila Odinga’s bloc are 23member listed as Angola, Botswana, Cape Verde (Cabo Verde), Eswatini (formerly Swaziland), Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Tanzania, Lesotho, Liberia, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, South Sudan, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe Guinea- Bissau, São Tomé and Príncipe, Mauritius – Anglophone, Sierra Leone, Nigeria.

This simply means that Mahmoud has a block of 8+13+5 votes totaling 26 while Raila has 23 votes.

With the magic number being 33, Raila Odinga faces significant hurdles in securing the African Union Commission (AUC) Chairperson position due to the entrenched Francophone-Islamic bloc, which collectively wields substantial voting power.

His ability to garner the required two-thirds majority will depend heavily on navigating complex diplomatic engagements influence of foreign powers, last-minute management of international politics and fostering honest alliances by strategic lobbying beyond traditional Anglophone member states. Neutral states and last-minute shifts in support could play a decisive role in the outcome.

As a fellow Kenyan, I wish Him All the Best.

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