On January 27th, in my article titled “Stop the “Giniwasekao” Mentality; AUC Chairperson is Too Close to Call,” I explored why the race for the Africa Union Commission (AUC) Chairperson was tight, cautioning Raila’s supporters not to celebrate prematurely.
I predicted a vote count of 26 for Djibouti’s Mahmoud and 23 for Raila, highlighting the influence of Francophone solidarity and Islamic-led state loyalty. Further, in another piece, “From Haiti to Sudan: Kenya’s Five ‘Diplomatic Missteps’ That Could Cost Raila Odinga the AUC Seat,” I discussed how Africa’s vast natural resources and growing market attract global powers, making the AUC chairperson a focal point of intense diplomatic lobbying influenced by current international politics.
I outlined how Kenya’s evolving foreign policy under President Ruto could pose hurdles even for Raila Odinga’s political acumen, suggesting that the AUC race might reflect on Kenya’s international standing rather than just on Raila’s leadership.
To salvage his bid, Raila needed to assure skeptical nations of his independence from Kenya’s current foreign policy. His success in securing a two-thirds majority hinged on navigating complex diplomatic engagements, managing the influence of foreign powers, and fostering genuine alliances beyond traditional Anglophone states.
President William Ruto, being an active player in Kenya’s foreign policy, was perhaps not the ideal ‘campaign chairman’ for Raila’s AUC campaign due to these challenges. Kenya, and Raila by extension, required a charismatic, trusted, influential figure with direct connections to African heads of state for a subtle diplomatic campaign. Unfortunately, with Uhuru Kenyatta sidelined, this opportunity was missed.
Uhuru Kenyatta, the former President of Kenya, earned significant international recognition when he faced charges at the International Criminal Court in 2010. This situation not only put him on the global map but also involved intense shuttle diplomacy by then-Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka, aiming to defer the ICC cases under Article 16 of the Rome Statute. Following his 2013 election win, Uhuru further engaged in international diplomacy, notably when he lobbied the African Union to request the UN Security Council to defer his case, although unsuccessfully.
Uhuru’s pan-African credentials are notable. Born to Jomo Kenyatta, Kenya’s founding president and a key figure in the Organization of African Unity, Uhuru was steeped in pan-African philosophy from birth. His foreign policy during his presidency emphasized intra-African trade, the adoption of Kiswahili as a continental language, and financial contributions to the African Union, showcasing his commitment to African solutions for African problems.
In the African Union framework, Uhuru held significant roles, including being the Chairperson of the African Peer Review Mechanism in 2015, and he was involved in mediation processes in the DRC, South Sudan, and Ethiopia. His diplomatic skills were further demonstrated when Kenya secured a seat on the UN Security Council against Djibouti in 2021, highlighting his capability in strategic international lobbying.
However, Uhuru’s record in international lobbying has been mixed. His support for Amina Mohamed in the 2017 AUC Chairperson race did not yield success, which could have offered lessons for Raila’s campaign. This experience underscores the importance of early alliances and understanding the fluidity of AU elections.
Uhuru maintained close personal and professional relationships with various African leaders like Paul Kagame, Felix Tshisekedi, Yoweri Museveni, Cyril Ramaphosa, Samia Suluhu Hassan, and Abiy Ahmed, which could have been leveraged to build a broader coalition for Raila.
Raila Odinga’s loss in the AUC Chairperson race reflects not just a diplomatic shortfall but a strategic oversight in not utilizing Uhuru Kenyatta’s extensive network, diplomatic experience, and understanding of AU dynamics. His absence created a vacuum that allowed competitors to consolidate their support, ultimately leading to Raila’s defeat.
