As the Rt. Hon. Raila Odinga of Kenya and other contenders for the chairperson of the African Union Commission approach the home stretch of their campaigns, it is important to note that, despite his aggressive approach, which has involved traversing nearly all the states on the continent, underlying diplomatic missteps by the Kenyan government may cost him the position.
Traditionally, Kenya has resisted controversial international politics, with former Presidents choosing to remain non-aligned in global politics despite the pressures. Some, like the late Mwai Kibaki, strategically prioritized economic diplomacy above every other interest in the diplomatic boardrooms.
Africa being a continent endowed with natural resources, and a large population for markets continues to attract the attention of global players, especially hegemons whenever it wants to make crucial decisions on its destiny.
Every major power has tried to influence the African Union directly or indirectly for instance, as a sign of good diplomatic relations and to enhance China- China-Africa relations, China fully funded the construction of the AU headquarters in Addis Ababa with a budget of 200 dollars; a gift to the African Union.
The United States on the other hand collaborates with the African Union (AU) through various initiatives, providing financial support primarily for specific programs in its FY2024 budget request, the U.S. Administration proposed $8.00 billion in assistance for Africa, up from $7.95 billion in FY2022.
This funding encompasses various sectors, including health, economic growth, and governance. Other players such as France, the United Kingdom, and Russia have either entangled themselves with the African Union or supported individual economic blocs or specific countries.
This means that they would be interested in whoever sits behind the desk to mobilize African heads of state, leading them in making key proposals and decisions on how they relate with themselves and the outside world. The AUC chairperson is a product of intense diplomatic lobbying premised on current International Politics.
This means that Kenya, in this case, Raila Odinga, might be supported or rejected based on the states’ close ties with their strategic influential “friends” in and outside the African Union. Consequently, in my opinion, I consider the following as diplomatic “blunders” by President William Ruto that can impact negatively on Raila’s bid.
1. Kenyan-led Led Multinational Security Support Mission in Haiti
Even before Raila expressed his interest in the AUC chairperson position Kenya had already declared interest in leading a Multinational Mission to support Haitian security and restore normalcy in Haiti’s Port Au Prince.
Although this is enshrined in International Humanitarian Law under the Responsibility to Protect with the intent of solving the escalating humanitarian crisis in Haiti this decision affects Kenya’s standing internationally.
Some African countries have raised concerns about the human rights record of Kenyan policemen following their alleged involvement in extrajudicial killings, kidnappings and use of excessive force in the recent past.
Even though no reports of abuse from Haiti by Kenyan policemen have been reported so far the states that don’t like Kenya’s involvement in Haiti suggest that the deployment to Haiti could exacerbate existing tensions and lead to potential abuses. These countries are likely to “punish” Kenya by not voting for its candidate.
Further, Russia and China have expressed reservations about transforming the Kenya-led force in Haiti into a United Nations peacekeeping mission. Their concerns stem from apprehensions about setting precedents for international interventions and potential infringements on national sovereignty.
The influence of Russia and China cannot be underestimated in the African continent because of this they might direct their close allies to back another candidate.
2. The Russia – Ukraine Crisis
In June 2024, President William Ruto articulated Kenya’s stance on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine during the Summit on Peace in Ukraine held in Bürgenstock, Switzerland calling the Russia Special Operation in Ukraine “Unlawful, Unjust and violation of International law.”
Although he advocated for a peaceful solution to the conflict, this does not change the way Russia perceives Kenya. Recently.
Russia wooed Uganda to join the BRICS alliance despite Kenya being the regional hegemon in East Africa. With Russia’s immense diplomatic influence in Africa, it may extend this to seal the fate of Raila Odinga
3. Israel- Palestine in Gaza
Ever since the advent of the Israel- Palestine conflict Kenya has been advocating for a two-state solution balancing diplomatic relations and international law. In 1989, Kenya officially recognized Palestine as a state.
In October 2023 after Hamas invaded Israel, President Ruto condemned the attacks reaffirming Israel as an ally but going ahead to advocate for a two-state solution.
Former president Uhuru Kenyatta was a staunch supporter of Israel backing all pro-Palestine UN Resolutions in his term but recently Kenya has been inconsistent in its position but in its actions seen to be favoring Israel.
In the 10th emergency special session of the UN General Assembly in September 2024 Kenya was accused of abandoning Palestine after Kenya together with 43 states abstained from the vote on Israeli actions in occupied East Jerusalem and the broader Palestinian territories.
Although the resolution was passed the allies of Palestine, especially in Africa saw this as a betrayal. Earlier in 2022 November Kenya had supported Palestine’s request to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) for an advisory opinion on Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories but reversed its position a month later voting against the decision an action that is seen as Kenya has been more of Pro Israel in the recent past.
Considering the solidarity of “Islamic countries” towards Palestine these recent mistakes might deny Raila the vote by Arabic and Islamic-led states in the African Union.
4. The Sudan Conflict
The Sudan crisis that started in April 2023 pitting the Sudanese Armed Forces General Abdel Fattah al- Burhan and the Rapid Armed Forges General Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo is one of the key shapers of AU’s upcoming decision.
Although President Ruto has publicly supported dialogue between the two factions with IGAD as a facilitator Al- Burhan’s allies have been uncomfortable with his meetings with RSF leader Hemedti Dagalo, especially after their Jan 2023 meeting which resulted in the Sudan ambassador in Nairobi protesting leading to diplomatic tensions between Nairobi and Khartoum.
Although the SAF leader visited Nairobi on November 13, 2023, perhaps signifying “things were Ok” there still exists silent talks of President Ruto siding with Hemedti Dagalo.
While Sudan stands among the six suspended members not participating in the AUC Chairperson polls, Al-Burhan, leader of Sudan’s Transitional Sovereignty Council, is a man of immense influence in Africa, especially West Africa.
Earlier this year in January, he had diplomatic visits in Mali, Guinea-Bissau, Sierra Leone, Senegal, and Mauritania. With these dynamics, he might just be an AUC chairperson with whom he can relate well; that is not Odinga.
5. Kenya’s Facing West Policy
Historically, Kenya’s foreign policy since independence has always been that of non-aligned. Each head of state has always tried to strive for the precious balance of associating with both the East and the West.
This approach allowed Kenya to maintain neutrality amidst global superpower tensions, focusing instead on its national interests and regional stability.
Even though under President William Ruto’s administration, there has been a concerted effort to further align Kenya’s foreign policy with contemporary global realities, he has been classified as being pro-West following numerous diplomatic events that have taken place.
For instance, since September 2022 President Ruto has visited more pro-west countries not limited to the United Kingdom, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, South Korea, Israel, Netherlands, and France.
To buttress this, He was the first African head of state in 15 years to be invited by the United States and among the bilateral agreements he signed one was to make Kenya a major non-NATO ally.
This has been backed up by his public condemnation of Russia in the Russia-Ukraine crisis and his support of Israel in Gaza. It should also be noted that Kenya is the only country King Charles and Queen Camilla visited in the October 2023 trip to Africa.
They undertook a four-day state visit to Kenya, marking the King’s first trip to Africa since ascending to the throne. It cannot be ignored that Ruto has made visits to the “East”, specifically in the states of China, Saudi Arabia, and India. These visits have been of less publicity, making him appear more of a Western-aligned leader.
With the East; Russia and China still having significant “control” in some African states, these affected states are likely not to support Raila’s AUC Chairperson Bid
Even if some of these “missteps” have arisen from Kenya’s efforts to diversify its development partnerships, align its foreign policy with contemporary international dynamics, and strategically position itself as an anchor state in Africa and the East African region, as well as to pursue state interests aimed at enhancing geopolitical influence, securing economic opportunities, and strengthening diplomatic engagements on the global stage, they may inadvertently undermine Raila Odinga’s ambition for the AUC Chairperson position by alienating key regional and international actors whose support is crucial in the polls.
Despite Raila Odinga’s aggressive campaign strategy, Kenya’s evolving foreign policy may create hurdles that even his political mastery cannot overcome.
While he has secured endorsements from various states, others may view Kenya’s diplomatic trajectory under Ruto as a liability. To salvage his bid, Raila must intensify last-minute lobbying, reassuring skeptical nations that his leadership will be independent of Kenya’s current foreign policy leanings.
Otherwise, the AUC Chairperson race could serve as a referendum on Kenya’s international standing rather than a vote on Raila’s leadership credentials and Pan-African Credentials.
As a Kenyan, I wish him well.
