A recent survey by Trends and Insights For Africa (TIFA) Research reveals the deepening rift over the impeachment of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua. Conducted from October 1 to 4, 2024, the survey reflects a polarized country with distinct regional and political divides.
According to the survey, 41% of Kenyans support the impeachment of DP Gachagua, while 38% oppose it, a nearly even split that underscores the nation’s uncertainty. However, the situation changes dramatically when examining specific regions, particularly Gachagua’s stronghold of Mt. Kenya, where an overwhelming 69% of respondents oppose his impeachment. In contrast, 47% of respondents from other regions are in favor of removing Gachagua from office.
The Mt. Kenya Factor
For Gachagua, the Mt. Kenya region represents his political base, and the numbers show strong loyalty there. Almost 86% of residents in the area are aware of the ongoing impeachment efforts, and 68% believe he has either “total” or “quite a lot” of support within the region. Nationally, this perception of strong support is also echoed, with 49% of Kenyans believing that Gachagua has substantial backing in Mt. Kenya.
This widespread regional support explains the overwhelming opposition to the impeachment in Mt. Kenya. Gachagua is viewed not just as a Deputy President but as the key political figure best representing the interests of the region, with 46% of residents naming him as their primary leader. Nationally, 28% of Kenyans share this view.
Performance Ratings: A Tale of Two Realities
Much of the divide stems from sharply contrasting views on Gachagua’s performance as Deputy President. While only 34% of Kenyans rate his performance as excellent or good, a much higher 59% of Mt. Kenya residents feel he has done well in office. On the flip side, only 27% of respondents from other regions share this positive view, further highlighting the regional polarization.
The political allegiance from the 2022 general election also plays a significant role in shaping opinions. The survey shows that those who voted for President William Ruto tend to view Gachagua more favorably, with 22% rating his performance as excellent. In contrast, only 9% of Raila Odinga supporters share this sentiment. Similarly, Raila’s supporters are more likely to back the impeachment, with 54% in favor, compared to 34% of Ruto voters.
Who Could Replace Gachagua?
As discussions around impeachment intensify, attention turns to potential successors. The survey finds that a significant number of Kenyans expect Interior Cabinet Secretary Kithure Kindiki to be the most likely replacement for Gachagua, should the impeachment succeed. Kindiki garnered 37% of mentions, making him the frontrunner in this political speculation. Other names floated include Musalia Mudavadi (5%), Ndindi Nyoro (5%), Anne Waiguru (3%) and Gladys Wanga(2%) but Kindiki’s popularity far outstrips his competitors.
Interestingly, despite the possibility of his removal, Gachagua remains the favored leader in Mt. Kenya. This presents a complex dynamic for President Ruto, whose decision on Gachagua’s replacement could significantly impact his standing in both the region and the broader country.
The Political Stakes
The upcoming impeachment vote looms large, and the outcome remains uncertain. Gachagua’s strong support in Mt. Kenya could serve as a shield against the impeachment, but the broader national discontent with his performance keeps the possibility of his removal alive. Moreover, the replacement of the Deputy President, should it come to that, could set the stage for a major reshuffling of political alliances as Kenya gears up for the 2027 general elections.
As the process unfolds, the national divide will likely deepen, with Mt. Kenya’s strong defense of Gachagua clashing against broader calls for his removal.
