Kenya’s political landscape is teetering on the edge of upheaval as veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga grapples with a moral dilemma over his alliance with President William Ruto’s regime. Sources close to Odinga reveal he is deeply troubled by the escalating police brutality, abductions, and murders under Ruto’s watch, particularly following the violent suppression of Gen Z protests against the 2024 Finance Bill.
Embarrassed by his association with a government accused of gross human rights violations, Odinga is reportedly contemplating a dramatic exit from the broad-based government he helped form. Yet, his key allies, Hassan Joho and Gladys Wanga, are pulling him in the opposite direction, eyeing their own ambitions as potential running mates for Ruto in 2027.
Odinga’s discomfort stems from the Ruto administration’s heavy-handed tactics. The deaths of over 50 protesters, coupled with abductions and enforced disappearances, have tarnished the regime’s image, with critics like former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua branding it a “blood-based government.” The killing of blogger Albert Ojwang in police custody and the teargassing of students at Butere Girls High School have further fueled public outrage, leaving Odinga caught between his reformist legacy and his current political pact. “Raila is humiliated,” a close aide confided. “He sees this as a betrayal of everything he’s fought for.”
Despite his unease, Odinga faces pressure from within his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). Mining and Blue Economy Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, both ODM heavyweights, are urging him to stay the course. Both have publicly endorsed Ruto’s re-election bid, with Joho declaring, “Ruto is a founding member of ODM. This is a reunion.” Their ambitions are clear: securing the deputy president slot in 2027. Wanga, dismissing claims of betrayal, insists the Ruto-Odinga pact is for “national unity” and addressing youth unemployment. Yet, their loyalty to Ruto risks alienating ODM’s base, particularly in Nyanza, where Odinga’s sister, Ruth Odinga, has hinted at his potential sixth presidential run.
In a bid to reclaim his opposition roots, Odinga has quietly reached out to Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, who has emerged as the de facto opposition chief after Odinga’s alliance with Ruto. Kalonzo, who called the Ruto-Odinga deal a “betrayal of Gen Z,” has been rallying support with Gachagua, Martha Karua, and Eugene Wamalwa to form a formidable coalition against Ruto in 2027. Sources say Odinga’s overtures to Kalonzo signal a desire to rejoin the opposition, but the move is complicated by ODM’s internal rifts, with allies like James Orengo and Edwin Sifuna openly criticizing the government’s “blunders.”
Meanwhile, Ruto has doubled down on praising the broad-based government, calling it “God-sent” and crediting it with stabilising Kenya after the 2024 protests. “The opportunity to have a broad-based government was God-sent. because to be able to carry this transformation, we need more minds and better political goodwill. Whoever wants to take the credit, they can have it so long as Kenya is transformed, I have no problem.” Ruto stated during the Cabinet retreat at the KCB Leadership Centre in Karen.
His effusive rhetoric, however, betrays an underlying unease, as he faces mounting criticism over abductions and police excesses. Analysts suggest Ruto’s reliance on Odinga’s support base is a calculated move to secure Nyanza, Western, and Coast regions, traditionally ODM strongholds. Yet, Odinga’s potential defection could unravel this strategy, leaving Ruto vulnerable.
As Kenya hurtles toward 2027, Odinga’s crisis of conscience threatens to reshape the political battlefield. Will he break free from Ruto’s grip and revive his opposition legacy, or will Joho and Wanga’s ambitions keep him tethered to a regime increasingly stained by blood? With Kalonzo waiting in the wings and Gen Z’s fury simmering, Kenya’s future hangs in the balance.
