The Mbeere North by election has erupted into one of the most electrifying political contests of the season, a race triggered after the appointment of former MP Geoffrey Ruku to the Cabinet as the Minister for Public Service. His elevation left the parliamentary seat vacant, setting off a fierce scramble to retain or reclaim political dominance in Embu. For the government, keeping the seat is more than symbolism, it is a statement of continued grip over the Mount Kenya region. And with Deputy President Kithure Kindiki hailing from this very constituency, stakes could not be higher.
Yet despite the heavy political artillery deployed, Leo Wamuthende is sprinting ahead with unstoppable momentum. According to the latest Ipsos survey, a remarkable 69 percent of voters would elect him if the election were held today. His closest challenger, Democratic Party candidate Newton Karish, follows at 25 percent, while Duncan Mbui stands at 4 percent. Only 2 per cent remain undecided, a sign that voters have already formed firm opinions as election day approaches.
Party affiliation numbers explain much of this. A strong 60 per cent of respondents say they feel closest to the UDA, providing Wamuthende with a solid political foundation. The DP’s United Opposition coalition commands 30 per cent, CCK attracts 6 per cent, and only 4 per cent are unsure. In a by-election where machinery matters, UDA enjoys a sizeable structural advantage.
The political climate on the ground has intensified dramatically. With the Deputy President Kindiki and Cabinet Secretary Ruku frequently camping in the constituency, the government has thrown its weight behind securing the seat. Their presence, combined with the pressure to demonstrate Mount Kenya loyalty, has sparked allegations of money changing hands, with rival camps accusing each other of fueling the race with cash inducements. The tension has energized the constituency, making this a battle watched far beyond Embu’s borders.
The entry of former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua into the campaign trail has further heightened the contest. Gachagua, now aligned with the Democratic Party side of the United Opposition, has openly backed Newton Karish. His involvement has breathed life into the DP campaign, turning the race from a routine by election into a political tug of war between two powerful Mount Kenya heavyweights and their competing visions.
But even with heavyweight endorsements, rallies, and competing caravans, the numbers remain firmly in Wamuthende’s favor. His message has resonated deeply with voters across wards, trading centers, and rural villages. His focus on local priorities, including agriculture, water challenges, youth opportunity, and infrastructure, has built a broad coalition that cuts across demographic and partisan lines.
With only a sliver of undecided voters remaining and turnout confidence running high, Leo Wamuthende is on the cusp of a commanding and possibly historic victory. The mood in Mbeere North is unmistakable. This is not just Wamuthende leading. It is Wamuthende, once again, bagging it all.
