The upcoming constituency by-elections in Banissa, Kasipul, Magarini, Malava, and Mbeere North constituencies mark a defining political moment in a nation undergoing rapid realignment. These are the first electoral contests since the collapse of the AZIMIO coalition, the dramatic impeachment of DP Gachagua, and the emergence of a new, broad-based opposition movement.
Beyond filling vacant seats, the mini-polls will test shifting party loyalties, public sentiment, and the strength of emerging political formations ahead of the 2027 General Election; essentially serving as Kenya’s first real referendum on the post-broad-based political order. Between 2020 and 2021, Kenya’s political landscape was shaped by a series of high-stakes by-elections that served as early indicators of voter realignments ahead of the 2022 General Election.
In Kabuchai, Ford Kenya’s Joseph Majimbo Kalasinga secured a decisive win, reaffirming Wetang’ula’s grip on Bungoma politics. In Matungu, ANC’s Peter Nabulindo triumphed, preserving Musalia Mudavadi’s regional base amid intense competition and unrest. The Msambweni race saw Independent candidate Feisal Bader; backed by William Ruto’s UDA, defeat ODM in its coastal stronghold, symbolising the Deputy President’s expanding national reach.
UDA’s momentum continued in Kiambaa, where John Njuguna Wanjiku narrowly edged out Jubilee, signalling Central Kenya’s political shift. Collectively, these by-elections marked the decline of the Jubilee Party, the fragmentation of ODM’s traditional dominance, and the emergence of UDA as a formidable national force reshaping Kenya’s political fault lines in preparation for the 2022 electoral showdown.
The upcoming by-elections scheduled for Thursday, 27 November 2025, present a crucial test for Kenya’s evolving political order. Voters in Banissa, Kasipul, Magarini, Malava, and Mbeere North constituencies will head to the polls in contests closely watched for their national implications. Particularly, the races in Mbeere North, Malava, Kasipul constituencies are expected to serve as bellwethers of shifting allegiances and the strength of emerging political formations ahead of the 2027 General Election.
The Mbeere North Constituency by-election has quickly transformed from a local contest into a national political theatre, one where alliances shift faster than Embu’s evening rains. The seat, left vacant after Geoffrey Ruku’s elevation to Cabinet, now pits loyalty, ambition, and irony in equal measure. Ruku, elected on a Democratic Party (DP) ticket but now serving in President Ruto’s government, finds himself caught between two masters: his new boss at State House and his old party leader, Justin Muturi, who now chants from the opposition benches. Definitely, he has chosen to work with UDA, but will he deliver the seat?
The by-election is equally a political exam for Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, whose growing stature in Mount Kenya politics faces its first real test after Rigathi Gachagua’s impeachment and Muturi’s unceremonious fall. A UDA win would boost Kindiki’s résumé as Ruto’s possible 2027 running mate; a loss could render him a footnote in political gossip.
Meanwhile, the opposition, unusually united for once, has coalesced around Newton Kariuki Karish, with Jubilee and DCP shelving their egos to back the DP candidate. Mbeere North is less a by-election and more a referendum on shifting loyalties; a political soap opera that could decide who truly owns Mount Kenya East’s future.
In Malava Constituency, the by-election has turned into a political circus where Western Kenya’s heavyweights are juggling loyalty, ego, and legacy in equal measure. Triggered by the death of MP Malulu Injendi; an ANC stalwart whose party has since melted into UDA, the contest now feels like a resurrection ceremony for collapsed parties and forgotten promises.
For UDA, the big question is whether Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi can truly herd his former ANC faithful into Ruto’s fold, as their candidate, David Ndakwa, an ANC-elected MCA now draped in yellow, tries to prove loyalty pays better than legacy. ODM, meanwhile, has chosen the safer path of surrender, opting not to field a candidate, perhaps to save face rather than votes, thereby confirming its fading pulse in Kakamega politics.
Across the aisle, the supposed “united opposition” is facing a litmus test. Should the opposition fail to field a single candidate, the by-election will evolve into a proxy battle between Cleophas Malala’s DCP machinery and Eugene Wamalwa’s DAP–K bloc. If they can’t agree on a single candidate, Malava could become a duel that could cost the opposition the seat.
The outcome will not only signal whether Western Kenya remains receptive to Ruto’s “broad-based government” narrative but also indicate whether opposition disunity could once again fracture their 2027 prospects. Ultimately, the by-election is less about development and more about a dominance scramble for Mulembe kingship; fueling the elusive Luhya unity and serving as a Western Kenya rehearsal for 2027.
The Kasipul Constituency by-election stands out as one of the most emotionally charged and politically consequential contests in Nyanza. Triggered by the tragic assassination of MP Charles Ong’ondo Were, the race has reopened long-standing questions about fairness, youth representation, and dynastic politics within ODM. The party’s nomination of 27-year-old Boyd Were, the slain MP’s son, has drawn both sympathy and skepticism.
While ODM, led by Governor Gladys Wanga, has rallied behind Boyd as a symbol of continuity, critics argue the party has returned to “inheritance politics” reminiscent of Kenya’s older political traditions. The chaotic ODM primaries, marred by violence, vandalism, and low turnout—exposed deep fissures within the party, with Governor Wanga and the Odinga family backing rival factions. For ODM, Kasipul will test whether it still commands unquestioned loyalty in Nyanza amid growing disillusionment over internal democracy.
Meanwhile, independent candidate Philip Aroko, once an ODM member and briefly a person of interest in the late MP’s murder, will test if the region is ready for a populist, development-centred campaign. The by-election will therefore measure three things: ODM’s enduring dominance in its heartland, Wanga’s personal political strength, and whether Nyanza voters are ready to embrace a generational shift, or remain anchored in legacy politics.
As the countdown to November 27 begins, these by-elections stand as a microcosm of Kenya’s rapidly transforming political landscape. They will test not only the strength of parties, personalities unity of the opposition, but also the depth of voter patience with shifting loyalties and promises of inclusivity.
Whether viewed as a referendum on President Ruto’s administration or a dress rehearsal for 2027, the outcome will redefine political alliances, expose new power centres, and signal the direction of Kenya’s next great political realignment.
