UDA candidate Samuel Muchina Nyaga has emerged as the frontrunner in the race for the forthcoming Ol Kalou Constituency by-election, according to the latest opinion survey released by Kenya Track Survey on June 4, 2026.
The poll places Muchina ahead of his closest challenger, Sammy Kamau Ngotho of DCP, in what is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched political contests in the Mt. Kenya region ahead of the 2027 General Election.
The survey, conducted between May 10 and May 31, 2026, sampled 4,354 respondents across Ol Kalou Constituency through telephonic interviews and carries a margin of error of plus or minus three percent at a 95 percent confidence level.
According to the findings, Samuel Muchina Nyaga commands 48 percent support among voters, giving him an eight-point lead over Sammy Kamau Ngotho, who garnered 40 percent. Other candidates collectively account for 8 percent of voter preference, while 4 percent of respondents remain undecided.
The survey attributes Muchina’s popularity largely to his affiliation with the ruling UDA party and the belief among many voters that he is best positioned to attract government-backed development projects to the constituency. Respondents cited infrastructure development, healthcare expansion, water projects, agricultural support and youth empowerment initiatives as key factors influencing their support for the UDA candidate.
Many also view him as a symbol of stability and continuity, capable of working closely with both county and national government leaders to advance local development priorities.
At the same time, the poll shows that Sammy Kamau Ngotho has built a formidable support base anchored on calls for political change, stronger grassroots representation and a more people-centered leadership style. Supporters describe him as accessible, energetic and closely connected to ordinary residents. His campaign message has particularly resonated with younger voters and those seeking alternative political leadership in the region.
Beyond the numbers, the survey paints a picture of an electorate increasingly focused on practical issues rather than political rhetoric. Development, job creation, agricultural support, road infrastructure, healthcare services and youth empowerment emerged as the dominant concerns influencing voter decisions. Residents indicated a preference for leaders capable of delivering tangible results and effectively representing constituency interests in Parliament.
The survey notes that undecided voters, together with those supporting minor candidates, could still play a decisive role in determining the final outcome. With campaigns expected to intensify in the coming weeks, both leading contenders will be seeking to consolidate support and win over swing voters.
The Ol Kalou by-election has attracted significant national attention due to its wider political implications for Nyandarua County and the broader Mt. Kenya region. Political observers view the contest as a critical test of party strength, grassroots mobilization and voter sentiment ahead of the 2027 General Election. The outcome is expected to provide valuable insight into shifting political alliances and emerging trends within one of the country’s most influential voting blocs.
As things stand, Samuel Muchina Nyaga remains the candidate to beat. However, with Sammy Kamau Ngotho maintaining substantial support and a section of voters yet to make up their minds, the battle for Ol Kalou remains open, setting the stage for a fiercely contested by-election with implications extending well beyond the constituency’s borders.
